Notes for the textbook Fundamentals of Sustainable Development, edition 2025.

The sources refer to the Bibliography.

Chapter:   1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12

 Introduction & Chapter 1

1. Roorda (2010).
2. Books: Roorda (2001b; 2005a; 2008a; 2008b; 2009; 2012; 2015; 2020; 2021a; 2021b; 2021d; 2022); Roorda & Rachelson (2018). Overview: Roorda, Niko (no date). Articles and chapters: Roorda (1999; 2001a; 2004; 2005b; 2011b; 2014; 2018); Roorda & Pérez Salgado (2007); Roorda & Martens (2008); Martens, Roorda & Cörvers (2010); Brandli et al (2014).
3. Books & articles about RESFIA+D: Roorda (2015; 2016); Roorda & Rachelson (2018; 2019).
4. Background photo: NASA Earth Observatory (2002).
5. Morach et al (2022). Easy-to-read summaries are available: BCG (2022) and Carrington (2022).
6. Mekonnen & Hoekstra (2010), table 1, p. 21; table 4, p. 27. The numbers are global averages.
7. Hoekstra et al (2011).
8. Xu et al (2022). See also: Scientific American (2023).
9. World Organisation for Animal Health (no date).
10. Joosten (2022).
11. Monbiot (2022).
12. Poore & Nemecek (2018); Scarborough et al (2023).
13. Wunsch (2023).
14. Tsui (2023).
15. IUCN (2022); WWF (2022); IPCC (2022b).
16. Wereld Natuur Fonds (2023).
17. ESA (2020).
18. The term paradigm shift was introduced by philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn (1962), in reference to 'scientific revolutions'.
19. Dam Removal Europe (2022).
20. Deinet, S. et al (2020). See also: World Wildlife Fund (2020).
21. Dam Removal Europe (2023).
22. Green (2002).
23. Wackernagel et al (2019).
24. Borucke et al (2013).
25. WWF (2022), p. 66.
26. Earth Overshoot Day (2024).
27. Global Footprint Network (2023a).
28. Global Footprint Network (2023b).
29. Data: Global Footprint Network (2023a). Online production of cartogram: Go Cart (2023). Background and credit: Gastner et al (2018).
30. Whitton (2012).
31. Bekker (2022).
32. It appears that the first aerobic organisms existed before the Great Oxidation Event, see Jabłońska & Tawfik (2021).
33. Global Footprint Network (2023c).
34. A rubric is an instrument widely used in contemporary university and vocational education to assess performance and skills and to provide feedback, in the form of a list of criteria, provided with a scale of points or level descriptions from low to high, which indicate how each criterion is well met. See: Reddy & Andrade (2010); Stevens & Levi (2012); VU (2023).
35. Great Green Wall: Sevgart (2021). Background, map of Africa: NASA (2002).
36. Nature Editorial (2023).
37. UNCCD (2023).
38. Afrik21 (2023).
39. Masterson (2022).
40. Mitchell (2023).

Chapter 2

41. NASA: Goddard Space Flight Center (2022). The images always concern the averages for the month of September.
42. Carson (1962).
43. WCED (1987).
44. Serageldin (1996). Thanks to John Elkington (1998) the Triple P received great acclaim and is intensively used.
45. World Resources Institute (2008), p. 164.
46. Lafferty & Langhelle (1999).
47. Anthropos (Greek) = human. Centrum (Latin) = center. Imran, Alam & Beaumont (2014).
48. Lamberton (2005).
49. Prigogine (1996). See also: an introduction by Johnson (2009), and for more details: Bertuglia & Vaio (2005). For the economic system: Beinhocker (2006), Kirman (2011).
50. University of Kansas (2022).
51. Cullen (2020).
52. Pfeiffer, Lisa & Cynthia Lin (2014).
53. Khazzoom (1980).
54. Jevons (1865).
55. Font Vivanco et al (2022).
56. Hardin (1968).

Chapter 3

57. Top graph: NOAA (2019); right section: Met Office Hadley centre (2024), matching the bottom graph. The white 'clouds' indicate the confidence margins, with the two dashed lines representing the P_2.5 and P_97.5 intervals: the area between them thus encloses the 2σ confidence interval. Lower graph: Met Office Hadley centre (2024). The data for 2024 is an estimate, published in November 2024: Copernicus Climate Change Service (2024).
58. Except by some institutions and individuals, 'climate deniers', e.g. Smith (2021), who use pseudoscience (Kaufman & Kaufman, 2018; Dutch: Hulspas & Nienhuys, 2021) and science denial (Hansson, 2017) to try to prove otherwise. This is often done in collaboration with extremist political movements and paid lobbyists (Michaels, 2020; Oreskes & Conway, 2010 plus the documentary based on it: Kenner (director), 2014). In many cases, this is combined with all kinds of conspiracy theories and various 'proofs', e.g. that smoking is not bad for health (Hulac, 2016). For an overview, download Appendix 7 of Roorda (2021, Dutch) or Roorda (2022, English).
59. De Glossary van IPCC (2018) defines: “Pre-industrial: The multi-century period prior to the onset of largescale industrial activity around 1750. The reference period 1850–1900 is used to approximate pre-industrial global mean surface temperature (GMST).”
60. CBS (2022).
61. NOAA (2022a).
62. See e.g. Genge (2018); However, recent studies doubt the significance of volcanic eruptions for climate, see e.g. DallaSanta & Polvani (2022).
63. IPCC (2022a). There is much debate about the extent to which models with more extreme outcomes, so-called hot models, should be included or excluded as outliers. See: Rahimpour Asenjan et al (2023).
64. Gebaseerd op Houghton (2015).
65. NASA Scientific Visualization Studio (2022). Both images refer to the annual minimum at the end of summer, so they are comparable.
66. Houghton (2015).
67. Augustin et al (2004). The name Milanković is also written as Milankovitch.
68. Rohde (2024). The figure shows the temperature difference between 2023 and the average over the period from 1951 to 1980.
69. Rantanen et al (2022).
70. Bhatia, Kieran et al (2022); Sena et al (2022); Danso et al (2022). 'Hurricane' is the designation in the Atlantic Ocean and in the part of the Pacific Ocean on the side of North America. In the rest of the Pacific, it is called 'typhoon' or 'taifun', in the Indian Ocean 'cyclone', but it is all the same. The general name is 'tropical cyclone'.
71. Guzman & Jiang (2021). A record flood in northern Bangladesh in the summer of 2022 drove more than 7 million people from their homes: IFRC (2022).
72. Carbon Brief (2022).
73. Francis, Jennifer, N. Skific, S.J. Vavrus & J. Cohen (2022). An accessible explanation can be found in Francis (2022).
74. Wang et al (2020).
75. Saifi et al (2022).
76. Oldenborgh et al (2021).
77. Geng et al (2022); NASA JPL (2024).
78. Zachariah et al (2022).
79. Croker et al (2022).
80. Baxter & Butler (2020).
81. Rafferty (2022).
82. Schumacher et al (2022).
83. The Late Ming Dynasty Mega-drought (LMDMD), 1637-1643, was one of the causes of the fall of the Ming Dynasty in 1644. Chen et al (2020).
84. Cook et al (2022).
85. FIRMS (no date).
86. Jenouvrier et al (2021).
87. Turvey (2009).
88. Mora (2022).
89. IPCC (2022b).
90. AON (2020), p. 12; cited by Linden (2022).
91. Lafakis et al (2019), p. 2.
92. USGCRP (2022).
93. Apap & du Perron de Revel (2021).
94. Gladwell (2000).
95. Heat Index Calculator: (2022c).
96. Kang & Eltahir (2018).
97. Halsall (2007).
98. Vargas Zeppetello et al (2022).
99. Christ et al (2023).
100. Naughten, Holland & De Rydt (2023).
101. NOAA (2017); NOAA (2022b). Other estimates include Bamber et al (2019); Box et al (2022); Van de Wal et al (2022); Turner et al (2023); Morlighem et al (2024).
102. Ice floe A-76 broke off on May 20, 2021: Turner (2021). Conger ice floe broke off on March 15, 2022: Gudmundsson, Jenkins & Miles (2022). Ice floe breaks off from Twaithes Glacier within a decade: YouTube-video, CBS (2021). Detailed explanation: YouTube-video, Weller, Mortimer & Rosen (producers, 2022).
103. Data extracted from McKay et al (2022); Kang & Eltahir (2018); Diaz & Rosenberg (2008); Kwiecinski & Babbin (2021). Background: NASA (2004). See also: Ripple et al (2023).
104. Caesar et al (2021); Van Westen, Kliphuis & Dijkstra (2024).
105. Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen (2023).
106. Lenton et al (2023).
107. Hopcroft & Valdes (2022); Duque-Villegas et al (2022).
108. IPCC (2022b), p. 263.
109. Besl (2022). For a video clip: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center (2015).
110. Breitburg et al (2018).
111. Heron et al (2017).
112. Hennekam et al (2020) ; Barth et al (2024).
113. Chuvilin (2022).
114. Sealevels: Grant et al (2014). Temperatures: Petit et al (2001).
115. Steffen et al (2018).
116. ESA (2022). The principle is depicted in a video clip: Financial Times (2022).
117. REDstack (2020).
118. Thorium can be used as well. This is not itself fissioned but converted into uranium-233, which can be used as fission material.
119. More precisely, fusion reactions use deuterium and tritium, two isotopes of hydrogen. Hydrogen in nature consists of only a small percentage of deuterium, but so little is needed for large energy generation that the water in rivers and seas provides more than enough raw material to keep energy production going for billions of years without a risk of water shortages. Tritium is grown in fusion reactors from lithium.
120. Nuclear fusion produces significantly more radioactive waste than nuclear fission, but of lower hazard: Gonzalez de Vicente et al (2022). For an overview of the disadvantages of nuclear fusion as an energy source, see Jassby (2017).
121. Bishop (2022).
122. Woodward, Han & Forbes (2021).
123. Amiryar & Pullen (2017).
124. Water: Pumped Thermal Electricity Storage, Benato & Stoppato (2018). Weights: Gravity Battery, Chaturvedi et al (2020).
125. Molten salt energy storage (MSES). Mazur (2023). An accessible explanation can be found in TU/e (2022).
126. Bui et al (2018). There are also drawbacks and risks associated with CCS: see Metz et al (eds., 2005).
127. King, A.D. et al (2022).
128. McQueen et al (2021); IEA (2022).
129. Negative emission technology (NET). Tanzer & Ramírez (2019).
130. Irvine et al (2016).
131. Biermann et al (2022); Sovacool, Baum & Low (2023).
132. Shayegh, Moreno-Cruz & Heutel (2015). For a discussion of this issue, see Milman (2022). In 2023, an international committee of scientists and politicians recommended not to start geoengineering just yet, but to do more research and make rules first: COC (2023).
133. Lazard (2017), Lazard (2021).
134. Lazard (2021), p.1.
135. Some examples: Aldersey-Williams & Rubert (2019) do include decommissioning costs. Lai et al (2017) do not.
136. BEIS (2018), p. 34.
137. Whether or not decommissioning of nuclear plants is included in the LCOE, and if so, for what amounts, varies from country to country, depending on government policy: see World Nuclear Association (2017), p. 32.
138. IEA (2024).
139. Exxon: CNN, Paddison (2023), which refers to Supran et al (2023). Shell: Carrington & Mommers (2017); Mommers (2017); they refer to Shell (1991). Review article: Mulvey & Shulman (2015).
140. UNFCCC (2023).
141. NewClimate Institute (2023).
142. Population size: UN DESA (2022a). Emissions: European Commission (2022a). Emissions cover the four main greenhouse gases.
143. Jenkins et al (2022).
144. IEA (2021).
145. MoEFCC (2022).
146. UNEP (2022).
147. UNEP (2023c).
148. Climate Action Tracker (2022). The table reflects expectations of November 2022.
149. Follow This (2024).
150. The Washington Post: Joselow (2022).
151. Thunberg (2022).
152. Nakate (2021).
153. Eckstein, Kunzel & Schafer (2021).
154. Chemnik (2022). G-20: to be precise, they are the 19 largest countries and the EU.
155. Rijkswaterstaat (no date).
156. Oldeman & Jelsma (2022).
157. CBS (2019).
158. E.g. in the Financieel Dagblad: Den Brinker (2012) en BNNVARA (2019).
159. Rechtbank Den Haag (2015).
160. In Dutch: Rechtspraak.nl (2019). In English: Urgenda (2019). An afterthought of the whole process, including lessons for future climate mitigation, is Wewerinke-Singh & McCoach (2021).
161. E.g. in the UK: BBC (2019); in the US: New York Times: Schwartz (2019).
162. Baazil & Miller (2021).
163. A good example is Philips: see Philips (2007, 2013); Philips (2018).
164. Pakistan: Gill (2015). Belgium: Germanos (2021). Germany: Connolly (2021). Ireland: Frost (2020). Colombia: Dejusticia (2018).
165. Our Children’s Trust (2023).
166. Wewerinke-Singh & Hinge Salili (2020); Farand (2022).
167. Sadai et al (2022). A coordinated strategy for litigation by AOSIS members has been proposed by Forbes (2021).
168. Literally translated: murdering the house. Ecocide is defined as: “unlawful or wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts”, where: Wanton = with reckless disregard for damage which would be clearly excessive in relation to the social and economic benefits anticipated; Severe = damage which involves very serious adverse changes, disruption or harm to any element of the environment, including grave impacts on human life or natural, cultural or economic resources; Widespread = damage which extends beyond a limited geographic area, crosses state boundaries, or is suffered by an entire ecosystem or species or a large number of human beings; Long-term = damage which is irreversible or which cannot be redressed through natural recovery within a reasonable period of time; Environment = the earth, its biosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere, as well as outer space. Source: Stop Ecocide Foundation (2021).

Chapter 4

169. World population: Michael Kremer (1993); from 1950: UN DESA (2022a). GWP: Bradford DeLong (1998); from 1980: IMF (2022), 5-year averages.
170. Thanks to the logarithmic scale, you can achieve the multiplication of world population by per capita production in the graph by adding up the heights - simply in centimetres or inches, for each year separately - of the two curves.
171. Boserup (1981).
172. It is difficult to realistically imagine the collapse of an entire civilisation. Jared Diamond (2005) helps with this, describing how numerous ancient and even more recent civilisations collapsed.
173. Theoretical description: Molina & Rowland (1974), who received a Nobel Prize for this in 1995.
174. Discovery of 'hole' in ozone layer: Farman, Gardiner & Shanklin (1985).
175. Ozone-depleting substances (cause; blue curve, left y-axis): EEA (2020a). Percentages are relative to 1986 values. Extent of ozone hole (effect; red dots, right y-axis): NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center (2022). Shown is the annual largest measured extent, circa September or October. The red continuous curve & transparent red uncertainty area: author's own estimate, matching well with the lower graph in WMO (2022), p. 10.  Background photo: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
176. On 9 January 2023, the UN environmental organisation UNEP issued a press release (UNEP, 2023a) stating that the ozone layer is recovering "as expected". The announcement was based on a scientific publication a few months earlier by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 2022), which noted: the "hole" over Antarctica could be back to 1980 levels, i.e. largely (but not quite) gone, by around 2066. That year is pretty uncertain, WMO said: it could also be 2050 or 2090. Lighter damage elsewhere in the world could be restored around 2040 or 2045, but that year is "very unreliable", the report writes. The WMO article also reported that unrestrained growth of CFCs at 3 to 3.5% per year would have caused additional global warming of 0.5 to 1°C by 2100; we have been spared that thanks to the Montreal Protocol. That beneficial effect is partly due to an addition to the Montreal Protocol: the Kigali Amendment, 2016, which bans HFCs. HFCs do not contribute to ozone depletion, but they do contribute to the greenhouse effect. After the UNEP press release, journalists immediately excitedly went to work. This was not always done carefully; even the reporters of serious news media appeared to have either not read the WMO publication or read it badly. British quality newspaper The Guardian wrote (Milman, 2023): "The ozone layer is on track to be fully restored all over the world by 2040, except in the polar regions." The greatest damage, that over the South Pole, was thus downplayed, and the large margin of uncertainty was hushed up. It was also suggested that expected global warming could now be revised downwards by half a degree or more, which was incorrect. In the Netherlands, De Volkskrant was similarly sloppy (Bolle, 2023): "The WMO expects the ozone layer to be restored in most of the world by 2040." The headline above the Volkskrant article was downright untrue: "Ozone layer restored in 2040". One meteorological institute, Weer.nl, did summarise the WMO article rather drastically in the lied headline "Ozone layer finally almost restored" (Huirne, 2023). Apparently, the word "almost" did not attract much attention, because promptly many on social media chanted that the ozone layer had been restored. Good news, but not true. See also: Kessenich, Seppälä & Rodger (2023).
177. Doyle (1991). Greenpeace (1997) quotes DuPont CEO Richard E. Heckert, who wrote to the US Senate on 4 March 1988 - i.e. after the Montreal Protocol was signed - "DuPont stands by its 1975 commitment to discontinue production of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons if their use poses a health threat. This is in line with DuPont's long-standing policy that we will not produce a product unless it can be safely made, used, handled and disposed of subject to appropriate safety, health and environmental quality criteria. At present, scientific evidence does not indicate the need for drastic reductions in CFC emissions. There is no indication of the contribution of CFCs to any observed change in the ozone layer."
178. EEA (2020a).
179. Supran & Oreskes (2017), Supran & Oreskes (2020), Supran, Rahmstorf & Oreskes (2023).
180. Eby et al (2009).
181. The uncertainty range of the top graph should actually be shown in the middle graph for each country separately. But that would make the figure too confusing, so for each country/region, only the most likely value (the median) is shown.
182. UN DESA (2024). A different model is Vollset et al (2020).
183. Jared Diamond (1997) describes this process in a fascinating way that won him a Pulitzer Prize. Another view has been described by Ester Boserup (1981).
184. Roorda (2011a).
185. Data: UN DESA (2024). See also: Population Pyramids (no date). On this website, you can choose any population pyramid you like: of countries, regions or the entire world, for any year between 1950 and 2100. (Obviously, data later than today are not facts but expectations).
186. Versed (2022).
187. Rockström et al (2009a); Steffen et al (2015a); Wang-Erlandsson et al (2022); Rockström et al (2023). For an overview: Dixson-Declève et al (2022), p. 16-19.
188. Meadows et al (1972). The team built on Jay Forrester's (1971) dynamic models.
189. Malthus (1798). The mass genocide in Rwanda in 1994 is sometimes seen as a contemporary example of a (Neo-)Malthusian collapse on a regional or local scale, see André & Platteau (1998), Diamond (2005, chapter 10) and Yanagizawa (2006), although there were other causes of the complex tragedy besides Malthusian overpopulation and food scarcity: see Boudreaux (2009), Verpoorten (2012) and Mitton (2022). What Malthus did not foresee was that the systemic limits do not arise only from limited production capacity of food and of raw materials for clothing, housing, transport, industry. It is not supply that turns out to be the main problem, but disposal. The most severe system limits are linked to nature's limited capacities to process our waste and emissions and repair the damage we do: deforestation, environmental pollution, the greenhouse effect. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich published a book, 'The Population Bomb', which also warned of the dangers of overpopulation and famine. His book can be seen as a predecessor of Meadows' 'Limits to Growth', but not yet equipped with a comprehensive computer model that allowed complex quantitative scenarios to be worked through.
190. First update of the model: Meadows et al (1992); second update: Meadows et al (2004).  Bardi (2008) described the eventful history of Limits to Growth (Meadows et al, 1972). Bardi (2011), Turner (2012), Turner (2014), Herrington (2021) en Tielbeke (2022) compared the model with the data available at the time and concluded that developments at those moments best matched the catastrophic BAU scenario.
191. Meadows et al (2004).
192. Weaver et al (2000); Jansen (2003); Quist (2007). Backcasting as a tool for higher education for sustainable development: Mandujano et al (2021); Ziegler & Porto-de-Oliveira (2022).
193. Bhatia, Manas (2022).
194. Marzec et al (2018); IPBES (2016), IPBES (2019).
195. MA (2005b).
196. MA (2005a), table 2.1.
197. For completeness: very low-level waste (VLLW), low-level waste (LLW), intermediate-level waste (ILW), high-level waste (HLW).
198. A few examples: the isotope europium-155 halves in about 5 years; samarium-151 in about 90 years; technetium-99 in two hundred thousand years; iodine-129 in 16 million years. After one half-life, the amount of radioactive waste is halved. This does not mean that everything is gone after another half-life, but that half of half remains: it is an exponential decrease. After ten half-lives, the amount has decreased to about one thousandth of the original amount, because 2¹⁰ = 1024.
199. Pavlovskaya et al (2024).
200. El-Showk (2022). The original target was commissioning in 2024, but reports of delay appeared in late 2023: NEI (2023). Readers can determine whether Onkalo has now opened.
201. King et al (2024).
202. World Nuclear Association (2022). Sweden: Swedish Ministry of the Environment (2022), p.5.  The Netherlands: COVRA (2018), p.21. That report also writes (p.14): "By 10,000 years, most of the short-lived radioactivity (...) will have decayed in-situ." "Around the end of [the 100,000 year] period, the radiotoxicity (...) will be close to that of the original uranium ore from which it was manufactured." France: NEA (2008), p. 6. The 500-year period expected here was applied in the figure. United States: DOE Guideline 960.4-2-1. DOE (2001), p. 18. "DOE would disqualify a site if the pre-waste emplacement ground water travel time from the disturbed zone to the accessible environment is expected to be less than 1,000 years along any pathway of likely and significant radionuclide travel." IAEA (2014): section 4.24, 5.3, I-14. The concept of "several thousands of years" has been interpreted as 3,000 years, i.e. up to the year 5000. Next ice age: Ganopolski et al (2016).
203. ‘Deep Time' was introduced by McPhee (1981). He wrote: "Any number above a few thousand years - fifty thousand, fifty million - will paralyse the imagination almost as much." Ialenti (2020) applies the concept to the future of nuclear power and radioactive waste storage. See further Gordon (2021), and of course all sorts of science fiction novels that practice deep time.
204. Tainter (1988), Diamond (2005), Harari (2011-2014), Van Bavel (2016) and Graeber & Wengrow (2021) describe or mention, e.g., the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia (now: Iraq and Iran, 22^nd century BC), the Ancient Empire (Egypt, 22^nd century BC), Harappa Indus Valley (India, 19^th century BC), Minoan Crete (16^th-15^th century BC), the Hittite Empire (Turkey, 12^th century BC), the Mycenaean Civilisation (Greece, 10^th century BC), China of the Zhou Dynasty (5^th-3^rd century BC. ), the Roman Empire (5^th century), the Islamic Abbasid Empire (13^th century), the Greenland Vikings (14^th century), the Khmer Empire (Angkor Wat, Cambodia, 15^th century), Greater Zimbabwe (Africa, 15^th century), Pitcairn Islands (Oceania, 15^th century), the Mogul Empire (India, 19^th century), the Fulani Sultanate (West Africa, 19^th century), the Ottoman Empire (Turkey, 19^th-20^th century), Rwanda (Africa, 20^th century), the Soviet Union (20^th century). In North and South America: the Moche IV civilisation (Peru, 6^th century), the mighty Maya Empire (Central America, 9^th and 10^th centuries), the Tiwanamu Empire (Bolivia, 11^th century), the Chaco Anasazi (Southwestern US, 12^th century), the Hohokam (Arizona, 15^th century), the Mississippi Culture (15^th century), all before the arrival of Europeans.
205. Drace, Ojovan & Samanta (2022), p. 10, wrote: "The social and political environment may change dramatically in the future. Moreover, a lesson from the past is that serious economic setbacks and political or social changes cannot be ruled out in the distant future. Estimating the cost of future liabilities contains significant uncertainties as they are projected into the future over many years. There are large time differences between the receipt of revenues from which the costs of nuclear waste management are to be covered and the actual costs incurred."
206. A warning text that has been suggested (Trauth, Hera & Guzowsti, 1993, p. F49-F50) reads: “This place is a message... and part of a system of messages... pay attention to it! Sending this message was important to us. We considered ourselves to be a powerful culture. This place is not a place of honor... no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here... nothing valued is here. What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us. This message is a warning about danger. The danger is in a particular location... it increases towards a center... the center of danger is here... of a particular size and shape, and below us. The danger is still present, in your time, as it was in ours. The danger is to the body, and it can kill. The form of the danger is an emanation of energy. The danger is unleashed only if you substantially disturb this place physically. This place is best shunned and left uninhabited”
207. Mraz (2018) gives an excellent overview and even looks a million years ahead. Figure 4.12 is reproduced from Van Wyck (2005), p. 73, who refers to US Department of Energy, Compliance Certification Application, Figure IV-3.
208. Some examples of warnings from the Egyptian Old Kingdom, 4500 to 5000 years old: "Cursed are those who disturb the peace of a Pharaoh. Those who will break the seal of this tomb will die of a disease that no doctor can diagnose." (Hawass, 2000). "As for all men who will enter this my tomb, there will be judgement; an end will be made for him. Further, I will seize his neck like a bird; further, I will seize the land; further, I will cast the fear of myself into him." (James, 1953). These warnings were illegible to us until ancient Egyptian hieroglyphic writing was deciphered in the 19th century.
209. Pimm et al (2014); Díaz et al (2019).
210. Crutzen & Stoermer (2000), Crutzen (2002).
211. On a much smaller scale, societies have already found a sustainable equilibrium, though. Diamond (2005, chapter 9) mentions, among others, the small Polynesian island of Tikopia; the highlands of New Guinea, where humans have lived together stably for 46,000 years; and Japan during the Tokugawa period, which ended due to disruption by Americans and Europeans in the 19^th century.

Chapter 5

212. Top: Grandjean (2016). Bottom: Abel & Cohen (2019).
213. Columbus (1492). The text has been slightly abridged.
214. Mann (2006).
215. Columbus (1492).
216. Burke (1998).
217. Brotton (2006).
218. The First and later Self-Awareness Waves are concepts newly introduced in this book.
219. Saliba (1994).
220. Raynaud (2014).
221. Geciteerd in Tarshis (1969).
222. Copernicus (1543, posthumous).
223. Woolhouse (1988).
224. Our World in Data (2023a), Based on Becker (2019); the graph is adjusted based on a moving average.
225. The Inquisition began in France in the 13^th century. see: Peters (1989).
226. Serfdom: situation in medieval Europe in which tenant farmers were owned by a landlord and bound to a piece of land owned by a lord. Peasants lived off the produce; the bulk of the harvest was handed over to the lord. This distinguished serfs from slaves, who were bought and sold without reference to a piece of land.
227. Rawley & Behrendt (2009).
228. Lewis (2024); according to EJI; Stevenson (2022) as many as 12.5 million. The history of the transatlantic slave trade has been described by Blackburn (2010), and portrayed in the form of an atlas by Eltis & Richardson (2015).
229. Word usage, Slave or Enslaved: In several languages, the term slave is increasingly being replaced by enslaved person. Many media and journalists, including US National Public Radio (McBride, 2023), use the new Associated Press (AP, 2021) guideline that considers both concepts acceptable, indicating a difference in meaning: slave refers to "a person treated as chattel or property", while enslaved person emphasises that "slave status is imposed on an individual".  This book follows this guideline. In several places, it emphasises the status as chattel or property, and uses the term slave: the other term would be too veiled there. See, for example, chapter 11, which reads, "Where once the rich and powerful regarded other humans as slaves, as their property, i.e. as disenfranchised things".  Wood (2022) put it this way: "Describing someone as a slave does not diminish their humanity. Making someone a slave diminishes their humanity, which is the reason not to do it."
230. The starting point of the Enlightenment is often considered to be the death of the French king Louis XIV in 1715. For the end point, either the beginning of the French Revolution, 1789, the death of Immanuel Kant in 1804, or the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 has been suggested. See: White (2018).
231. Bruno (1584).
232. Fitzgerald (2007).
233. Newton (1687).
234. For instance, Lavoisier's discovery of the element oxygen enabled him to understand exactly what burning and rusting are: Lavoisier (1782).
235. Koyré (1939), Kuhn (1962).
236. Hobbes (1651), Filmer (1680).
237. Locke (1690); Rousseau (1762a) & (1762b) ; Montesquieu (1748).
238. Kant (1795).
239. Willaschek (2024).
240. William was also Willem III, stadholder of the Netherlands, who came to power with his wife Mary II in England, Scotland and Ireland in 1688 through the Glorious Revolution.
241. UK Parliament (retrieved 2024).
242. Bristow (2023).
243. Jefferson, Thomas & Committee of Five (1776).
244. The Dutch Act of Abjuration: Van Asseliers (1581). On its origins: Malt (Ed., 2018). Comparison between the two texts: Coopmans (1983). Not everyone is convinced that the Dutch Declaration of Independence was used as a source for the American one: Lucas (1994), Maier (1998).
245. Canada took much longer. In 1867, the territory gained self-government under British rule, followed by legal autonomy in 1931 and full independence in 1982.
246. French: Liberté, égalité, fraternité. Desmoulins (1790) is named as the originator of the phrase, but this is not certain. See: Leuwers (2018). It was only during the Third Republic, in the late 19^th century, that it officially became France's national motto.
247. Eze (Ed., 1997).
248. The names and boundaries are those of today. The years of colonisation shown are by no means unambiguous in all cases, and so the most logical years have been chosen, although not everyone will feel the same about them.
249. The Berlin Conference, 1884-1885, see Förster, Mommsen & Robinson (Eds., 1988). In 1916, the UK and France, with the agreement of Russia and Italy, secretly concluded the Sykes-Picot Treaty in which something similar happened to the Middle East, see: Fromkin (1989).
250. Law (Ed., 1995).
251. Frankema et al (2018).
252. Hopkins (1995).
253. Kea (1995).
254. After 1867: the dual monarchy of the Empire of Austria and the Kingdom of Hungary.
255. Since the area was hardly controlled by France, the Louisiana Purchase was effectively the recognition of the Americans' right to conquer the area from the natives, an opportunity that President Thomas Jefferson seized with both hands.
256. Or at least so it is claimed. See: Bély (2005).
257. Feinstein (2024).
258. Brubaker (1996), Wimmer & Min (2006).
259. This principle was already enshrined in the Peace of Westphalia, a pair of treaties that ended a number of European wars in 1648.
260. Wimmer & Feinstein (2010).
261. The emergence of nation-states therefore increases the likelihood of wars, according to Wimmer & Min (2006). This includes wars in the context of independence struggles: Hobsbawm (2012); Grajzl et al (2024).
262. Barnett (2016); Meierhenrich (2020).
263. Lake (2015).
264. Inozemtsev (2017); Etkind (2023).
265. Chung (2018).
266. Robinson & Mann (2021).
267. Hickel (2021).
268. Hansen (2006): p. 1, p. 11.
269. Morris & Scheidel (2009), p. 77.
270. Demographia (2023). The figure refers to the metropolitan area, just like the stated population size of Athens.
271. Polanyi (1944-2001); Lopez (1976).
272. Petram (2011)
273. See e.g. Polanyi (1944-2001); Van Bavel (2016).
274. Hume (1752).
275. Smith (1776-1789).
276. Hetherington (1983); Clark (1988).
277. Say (1803). Say (1803). Jean-Baptiste Say himself expressed this in more nuanced terms. For instance, he wrote: “It is worthwhile to remark that a product is no sooner created than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value. When the producer has put the finishing hand to his product, he is most anxious to sell it immediately, lest its value should diminish in his hands. Nor is he less anxious to dispose of the money he may get for it; for the value of money is also perishable. But the only way of getting rid of money is in the purchase of some product or other. Thus the mere circumstance of creation of one product immediately opens a vent for other products.” Say (1834), p. 138–139.
278. Mill (1836); see also Persky (1995).
279. Tittenbrun (2013).
280. Hayek (1944); Friedman (1962). See also: Jones (2014)..
281. Kindleberger & Aliber (2005)
282. Reinhart & Rogoff (2009); Reinhart & Reinhart (2015). BCDI = Banking, Currency, Default and Inflation crisis index.
283. Polanyi (1944-2001).
284. European Commission (2024c).
285. Apple Inc. (2024).
286. Bucklew et al (2018).
287. Amazon (2024). The amount represents net sales, i.e. gross sales minus returns, provisions and discounts.
288. Weise & Corkery (2021).
289. Scheiber (2019); Streitfeld (2021).
290. Hsu (2023).
291. Herrera (2024).
292. World trade: Ortiz-Ospina, Beltekian & Roser (2024), based on Federico & Tena-Junguito (2016). Data from 2015: World Bank (2024a). GWP and world population: see figure 4.1.
293. Based on NREL (2023).
294. Wilson (2017).
295. CECC (2023).
296. AfDB (2023).
297. Facebook: MAUs, monthly active users: 3.05 billion = 57.53% of all internet users. DAUs, daily active users: 2.09 billion. Facebook Family: MAUs: 3.96 billion = 74.72% of all internet users. DAUs: 3.14 billion = 59.25%. Source: Dean (2024).
298. OAG (2023).
299. Singapore Airlines (2024), booked in May 2024.
300. Petrosyan (2024).
301. Apparasu (2020).
302. Barchfield (2023). In 2016, a peace deal was signed between the Colombian government and FARC. But several other rebel armies have remained active since then.
303. Van der Zee (2016).
304. Der Nederlanden (1998).
305. Verseck & Feck (2019).
306. US Census Bureau (2024).
307. Elliott (2021).
308. UNHCR (2023a).
309. The UDHR is not a treaty signed or ratified by states, so it is not legally binding. However, courts around the world do refer to the declaration. See: Amnesty International (2023).
310. UNHCR (2023b).
311. BBC (2024).
312. Based on Jehoel-Gijsbers (2004); Jehoel-Gijsbers & Cok Vrooman (2007), with some additions.
313. Presser (2005).
314. Han (2024); ILO (2022).
315. ABA (2018).
316. Wilkinson (2017).
317. Nouwens et al (2020); Kampanos & Shahandashti (2021).
318. Arvonne Fraser (1999). She points to previous fighters for women's rights, including Christine De Pizan (1405) en Mary Wollstonecraft (1792).
319. Oldeman & Jelsma (2022).
320. UNFCCC (consulted April 2024). The largest pledges, about $100 million each, were made by Italy, France and Germany. The UK pledged $50 million, the US $17.5 million, Japan $10 million.
321. Hickel (2018); Patnaik & Patnaik (2021).
322. Hickel (2021).
323. AAA Executive Board (1947).
324. UN (1966a), UN (1966b).
325. Sullivan & Kymlicka (2009).
326. Sachedina (2009); Gunn (2020).
327. The Declaration was updated in 2020. The 1990 version was heavily Shariah-based; the 2020 version was not. The Secretary-General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) called the 2020 version (OIC, 2021) a "contemporary declaration" (Al-Othaimeen, 2020). For the history and interpretation of the text, see Littman (2003) and Mozaffari (2021).
328. Such as: ecological economics: Polanyi (1944-2001); Georgescu-Roegen (1971); Schumacher (1973); Daly (1977 and 1991). Chrysalis economics: Elkington (2001). Evolutionary economics: Beinhocker (2006). Doughnut economics: Raworth (2012). Experimental economics, which relies much more on empiricism and experimental testing than mainstream economic models: Bardsley et al (2009), Fréchette & Schotter (Eds., 2015). Complexity economics, which aims to do justice to full complex realities: Kirman (2011), and behavioural economics that takes humans seriously and no longer seeks to reduce them to Homo Economicus: Thaler (2016). Omniconomics, aiming at a new theoretical foundation and synthesis of all new models: Roorda (2021d, 2022).  Environmental economics does not belong in this list, as it deals with environmental issues within the dominant economic models.
329. Baxter (2015).
330. Babatola (2015).
331. Based on: UCDP (2023); Dupuy & Rustad (2018); Our World in Data (2023c).
332. Unless someone designs an appropriate formula for that. A great subject for a PhD thesis.

Chapter 6

333. SMART: Specific, Measurable, Accepted, Realistic, Time-bound. (The letter 'A' is often interpreted as 'Acceptable', but it is not established that something is acceptable until it is accepted). The concept of SMART was introduced by George Doran (1981), who originally enumerated: Specific, Measurable, Assignable, Realistic, Time-Related. The term is also known as fit for purpose, with an emphasis on S, M and A.
334. UN ECA (2001); UN DESA (2012).
335. In fact, the MDGs did not start on 1 January 2001. They were conceived in August 2001 and announced in September that year. (Dodds, Donoghue & Leiva Roesch, 2016).
336. UN (2015).
337. Dodds et al (2016).
338. These and subsequent short introductory sentences for each of the 5 Ps are taken from the Preamble of the SDGs: UN DESA (2015).
339. Apparently there are 244, but there are 12 duplicates, linked to more than one SDG.
340. UN DESA (2015): Preamble, first paragraph.
341. Pinker (2018); Rosling (2018).
342. Pinkovskiy & Sala-i-Martin (2009); Worldbank (2023a).
343. Hasell (2022).
344. Woodward (2015)
345. World Bank (2023a); Our World in Data (2023a).
346. Hickel (2019a)
347. Pritchett (2017)
348. Beware if you live in a country in the Eurozone: even though quite a few countries use the same euro as their currency, the conversion is not the same everywhere, as the price level and thus purchasing power varies from country to country.
349. UN (2015).
350. Wudil et al (2022).
351. Reliability: the degree to which the results of measurements can be trusted because the measurement method has been carefully established and implemented. Mistakenly, 'reliability' is usually defined as the extent to which measurement results are re-established upon repeated measurement, but that is not a definition but a procedure to determine reliability in a given situation. This procedure is not practicable in the present case, since the unreliable poverty rates of many countries over the past two centuries (up to 1981) cannot be re-measured; the data are simply missing.
352. Also called: hidden or underground economy. IMF (2021), p. 13. The International Labour Organisation defines informal economy as “all economic activities by workers and economic units that are – in law or in practice – not covered or insufficiently covered by formal arrangements, [which do] not cover illicit activities, in particular the provision of services or the production, sale, possession or use of goods forbidden by law, including the illicit production and trafficking of drugs, the illicit manufacturing of and trafficking in firearms, trafficking in persons, and money laundering, as defined in the relevant international treaties”. ILO (2015), section I2.
353. Valenzuela-Garcia (2018); Taskinsoy (2023); Gunn & Deinne (2023).
354. Quiros-Romero, Alexander & Ribarsky (2021).
355. Consistency means that the different parts of a definition (as here: poverty) and of the measurement methods are consistent with each other, i.e. do not conflict with each other. Somewhat forcibly, in this case, you can maintain that the two targets are consistent with each other, because target 1.2 does not mention the word 'extreme'.
356. Target 1.2 is different from target 1.1 in two respects: not only with regard to a multidimensional, non-financial approach, also with regard to national definitions. Following authoritative sources (World Bank, UNICEF), the multidimensional definition is particularly considered here and in Chapter 10. See: World Bank (2017), chapter 2; Chzhen et al (2017).
357. This involves a combination of concept validity (construct validity: do the criteria measure what is meant by the concept?); content validity (do the criteria include a full description of all relevant aspects, is the 'coverage' complete?); ecological validity (do the criteria reflect reality realistically?); and the lesser-known consequential validity (does the application of the criteria have the intended effects in society?).
358. Opinions vary widely on the question, which SDGs are most important. For instance, a survey of a good number of experts placed SDG 10, less inequality, at number 1 (Leitner, 2017), while a survey of national SDG reports actually ranked SDG 10 as the least important goal (UN DESA, 2019a). In a ranking based on an Ipsos survey in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (Ipsos, 2021), the top three consist of SDGs 2 (hunger), 1 (poverty) and 3 (health and well-being), while Kleespies & Dierkes (2022) refer to several sources, in which one survey identifies SDG 13 (climate) and SDG 3 (health and well-being) as priorities, and another study opts for SDG 2 (hunger), SDG 6 (clean water) and SDG 1 (poverty). This book has prioritised key SDGs, as the text reflects, that is, SDGs whose success is a necessary condition for the other SDGs to succeed.
359. The concept of "developing countries" is not considered correct by everyone, partly because the word unfairly lumps many countries together. See: Barros Leal Farias (2023).
360. Brainard & Chollet (Eds., 2007); Rice (2006).
361. Sachs (2005); Puri (2005); BMZ (2017). Pop idol Bono also made such a proposal in 2016: see Zengerle & Wroughton (2016).
362. Andersen et al (2020) estimate wasted aid at 7.5%. Quite a few sources cite a percentage lost to fraud and corruption of 30%, or 'at most 30%', or 20%-40%, or even 30%-67%; but all these estimates seem to be based on misconceptions or are of poor reliability. See: Wathne & Stephenson (2021): Corruption statistic no. 8, p. 23-25.
363. Coups and coup attempts since 2019: 2019: Gabon, Sudan, Ethiopia. 2020: Mali, Central African Republic. 2021: Niger, Mali, Tunisia, Guinea, Sudan. 2022: Burkina Faso (2x), Guinea-Bissau, Mali, São Tomé and Príncipe, Gambia. 2023: Niger, Sierra Leone, Gabon.
364. Fund for Peace (2024).
365. Easterly (2006), chapter 8.
366. Hickel (2018); Patnaik & Patnaik (2021).
367. Führer (1996); Fritz & Raza (2017).
368. Minoiu & Reddy (2009); Kilby & Dreher (2009); Bearce & Tirone (2010).
369. Ono & Sekiyama (2023), Nhlangwini et al (2023).
370. Kounou (2020).
371. Bhattacharya et al (2023).
372. Anajama (2021).
373. Lee et al (2019).
374. OECD/DAC (2022): Section 4.1, p. 15; Tabel A7.
375. In 2020, the added value of the agricultural sector in the EU was €178.4 billion. Turnover was 1.3% of the Union's GDP. The sector received €54.4 billion in subsidies, which is 30% of their profits. This made agricultural subsidies by far the largest item of expenditure in the EU budget. Source: European Commission (2021).
376. Easterly (2006), chapter 1.
377. Grynspan (2023).
378. World Bank (2022), p. XIII. Total external debt = public debt + publicly guaranteed debt + private unguaranteed debt + short-term debt (World Bank, 2022, p. 3).
379. UN IATF (2022).
380. The debt-to-GNI ratio. See: World Bank (2022), p. 3.
381. World Bank (2023b).
382. UNCTAD (2023): p. 10 en 19.
383. The IMF Board is the Executive Board, which holds decision-making powers delegated by the Board of Governors (IMF, 2023a). Seat distribution: IMF (2023b).
384. Seat and vote distribution: IMF (2023b). Population data: UN DESA (2022b).
385. Distribution of votes: IMF (2023b). Financial quotas: IMF (2023c).
386. Grynspan (2023).
387. Bretton Woods Project (2019), section 2.1; Hickel et al (2022), section 5.2; Mohammed (2022).
388. A fascinating collection of future scenarios for the years 2030 to 2050 are available for download at EU Competence Centre on Foresight (2020).
389. Oldeman & Jelsma (2022).
390. UNFCCC (consulted April 2024). The largest pledges, about $100 million each, were made by Italy, France and Germany. The UK pledged $50 million, the US $17.5 million, Japan $10 million.
391. Rubenstein (2007).
392. Data taken from Dawes (2021). The illustration is not intended to show linkages between SDGs exactly, which cannot be done because experts' views on this are very divided, but is only illustrative. For the sake of clarity, the linkages are undirected, and only the positive linkages have been shown, based on the data in Dawes (2021), table 2; the negative linkages, quantified in table 3, have been ignored.
393. More examples of trade-offs: Pham-Truffert et al (2020); Bandari et al (2022); Dawes (2022).
394. Dodds et al (2016).
395. Dodds et al (2016), p. 94 and 101.
396. Dodds et al (2016), p. 38. In Niger, 28% of girls are married before their 15th birthday; for Niger and other countries, see the interactive website GirlsnotBrides (no date). In Iran, the marriageable age for boys is 15, for girls 13. Through judicial intervention, men in that country can marry their even younger adopted daughters. In 2010, 42000 girls between the ages of 10 and 14 married in this way (Dehghan, 2013), and 716 girls under the age of 10 (Tait, 2012).
397. Smith & Gladstein (2018).
398. Hickel (2019b).
399. Sustainable Development Report 2022: Sachs et al (2022).
400. Schmidt-Traub (2015): $ 1400 billion in dollars of 2013.
401. Earth Charter Initiative (2000).

Chapter 7

402. In ancient times, sewers sometimes existed, including in Babylonia and the Roman Empire. But an enclosed house-to-house system was only first proposed in London in the 19^th century, and constructed after much struggle. See: Hamlin (1992). In New York, construction of such a system began in 1849.
403. As early as the last decade of the last century, the possibility of a fine-mesh tube network for consumer goods was being studied, although it was not yet focused on connections to each individual house. See: Bangert, Piebenga & Jansen (1998).
404. Voulvoulis et al (2022).
405. Newton (1687).
406. Aristotle (c. 350 BC-b), IV 1, 208b9-10; Aristotle (ca. 350 BC-c), IV 3, 310a30-35.
407. Grant (1994).
408. Dijksterhuis (1950/1961); Dolnick (2011).
409. 'Gravity' in economics: Isard (1954); Tinbergen (1962); Baier & Bergstrand (2009).
410. This is not to say that this was a linear process that always went only one way. Not all peoples switched to agriculture; and certain peoples later returned to a nomadic existence. See: Graeber & Wengrow (2021).
411. Allen (2009); Landes (2003).
412. Halliday (2001). The miasma theory came from the famous physician Hippocrates (ca. 400 BC: part 1).
413. The originator and first proponent of the pathogen hypothesis was John Snow (1853).
414. Tulchinsky, Varavikova & Cohen (2023). Some supporters of alternative medicine to this day dispute the disease germ theory, such as Novella (2010) and Gorski (2010) describe.
415. Factors such as 2, 5 and 20 are more or less symbolic numbers, as quite a few improvements cannot be expressed exactly in a number. Ecological efficiency is sometimes expressed using the so-called IPAT formula: I = P∙A∙t, also known as Ehrlich's 'formula' or Commoner's 'formula': see Ehrlich & Holdren (1971); Barry Commoner (1972). In it, I = Impact (on resource stock and environment); P = Population, A = Affluence (welfare), t = Technology, a measure of eco-efficiency. If I must halve, t must also halve, i.e. eco-efficiency must double because only half as many virgin materials and energy are used and ecological damage halves. If you also take into account increases in prosperity, especially for poor countries, or a growth of the world population, efficiency must be increased by a factor of 4 (Von Weizsäcker et al, 1997), a factor of 10 (Factor 10 Club, 1994), or - if you take both into account - a factor of 20 (Weaver et al, 2000); Quist, 2007). For an overview, see Chertow (2001). These calculations are now several decades old but are still relevant, as the eco-efficiency of far from all products has improved dramatically. There are favourable exceptions: the energy consumption of several products, including refrigerators and houses, has improved considerably.
416. Jansen (ed., 1997); Roorda (2001a). See also: Brezet, Bijma, Ehrenfeld & Silvester (2001), Kobayashi (2005) and Gaziulusoy & Brezet (2015), who distinguish a four-level model, including function innovation. Floating cities: see WCFS (2023).
417. Rotmans (2007), p. 37.
418. Loorbach & Rotmans (2010).
419. Mao Zedong (1956). This famous quote is wonderful. However, it marked the start of a development that ended with the execution of many Chinese intellectuals who heeded Mao's call.
420. Literally, for laying fibre-optic cables for superfast internet.
421. Rotmans (2007), p. 37.
422. Grin, Rotmans & Schot (2010), p. 2.
423. Kurzweil (2006); Krüger (2021); Jorion (ed., 2022); Tüfekçi Can (2023).
424. Roose (2023).
425. That is: about 3 Wh. Luccioni, Jernite & Strubell (2023), p.5.
426. Hintemann & Hinterholzer (2022); see also International Energy Authority (2023).
427. Verma, Pranshu (2023); Dash & Sharma (2023); Łabuz & Nehring (2023).
428. EEA (2012); EEA (2023a); EEA (2023b). At the time of writing, the Fit for 55 target for 2040 (90% reduction) was not fixed but recommended by the European Commission in order to meet the (fixed) target for 2050 (100% reduction). Perhaps at the time of reading, the 90% target has since been set. For the curve of the Energy Roadmap in the period between 2020 and 2030, a natural trajectory has been assumed. The same is true for Fit for 55 between the 2030, 2040 and 2050 targets.
429. Fit for 55 owes its name to the 55% emission reduction target. After a different calculation method was adopted in 2023, where carbon sinks are included, a recalculation yielded a figure of 57%. Thus, the adjustment from 55% to 57% is not a tightening of the target. Figure 7.2 shows for 2030 the adjusted value of 100% - 57% = 43%. See: European Parliament (2022).
430. European Commission (2024a).
431. More precisely, GDP grew from $6.50 trillion to $16.74 trillion, i.e. by a factor of 16.74 / 6.50 = 2.575. This increase is real because it has been adjusted for inflation: both amounts have been converted to 2024 dollars. In purchasing power terms, GDP rose from PPP$6.23 trillion in 1990 to PPP$24.44 trillion in 2022, growing by a factor of 3.92. (The numbers are taken from World Bank, 2024a).
432. Emissions fell to 68.3% compared to 1990. So CO₂ efficiency improved by a factor of 2.575 / 0.683 = 3.77. In purchasing power, the efficiency improvement factor is 3.92 / 0.683 = 5.74.
433. For an online overview by the EU itself: see European Commission (2023c).
434. European Commission (2020a).
435. EEA (2020b).
436. European Council (2023); European Parliament (2024).
437. European Commission (2020b).
438. European Commission (2020b).
439. It involved a draft legislation called Sustainable Use of Pesticides Regulation (SUR). See: European Commission (2022e); PAN Europe (2024).
440. European Commission (2023d).
441. European Commission (2022d).
442. European Commission (2023e).
443. NHTSA (2023).
444. EU (2023).
445. European Commission (2020c); Sarkki et al (2022).
446. Tagliapietra & Lenaerts (2021).
447. BMWi (2020).
448. O2 Federatie (2023).
449. NOAA (2022b).
450. Morales (2022).
451. Schefold et al (Eds., 2004).
452. Goodell (2017), chapter 11. In comparison, for the Dutch coastal protection, a height that statistically results in flooding at most once every 10,000 years was set by law in 1955 (Van der Vleuten & Disco, 2004, p. 303). Since 2017, the legal standard is related to mortality, and requires a probability of death due to flooding of at most once every 100,000 years, see Dutch Water Sector (2016).
453. City of Miami (2021).
454. Gibson (2019), and next UN-Habitat (2022).
455. Oceanix (2023).
456. Maldives Floating City (2022).
457. Clarke (1962, 2000).
458. Cited from: Roorda (2021d); Roorda (2022).
459. The similarities and differences between transitions and transformations are interpreted differently by a variety of authors (see, e.g., Smith, Stirling & Berkhout, 2004 and Anderson & Anderson, 2011), presumably based on different scientific cultures in diverse research communities, Hölscher, Wittmayer & Loorbach (2018) write. Many experts consider the words to be (more or less) synonymous. Following suit, this book does too. Loorbach (2022) writes about "transformative change through radical transitions". Further classifications have been made, e.g. by Feola (2015), table 2, including deliberate transformations, progressive transformations, societal transitions, socioecological transitions, etc.
460. This quote is usually attributed to Mark Twain, but whether that is correct is questionable. See: Quoteresearch (2014).
461. Feola (2015), Patterson et al. (2016).
462. Olsson et al (2006), Folke et al (2010), Park et al (2012). Sometimes not three but four phases are distinguished, including a pre-development phase: see Geels and Schot (2007), De Haan and Rotmans (2011). Loorbach et al (2017) divide the S-curve into five parts: experimentation, acceleration, emergence, institutionalization, stabilization, and adds a descending S-curve for the breakdown of the old 'regime', forming an 'X-curve'.
463. Frankopan (2023).
464. Feola (2015).
465. With a top-down initiative, De Haan & Rotmans (2011) speak of reconstellation, with bottom-up of empowerment.
466. Geels and Schot (2007) en Loorbach et al (2017) speak of Multi-level Perspective (MLP); Folke et al (2010) of multiscale and multilevel. See also Rotmans (2007), p. 37, who writes about a spiral effect, and Rotmans, Loorbach & Kemp (2007), p. 7, about coevolution.
467. Think of the famous PDCA cycle: Plan, Do, Check, Act, also known as the Deming Circle: Deming (1986).
468. Noëth et al (2023); see also Loorbach et al (2017).
469. Goldstone (2001). See also: De Haan & Rotmans (2011), table 3.
470. The EU AI Act, see: European Parliament (2023).
471. Frankenfeld (1927).
472. Rotmans, Loorbach & Kemp (2007), p. 8-9.
473. De Haan & Rotmans (2011).
474. Data: Yahoo! Finance (2024).
475. Rotmans, Loorbach & Kemp (2007), p. 15.
476. The saying comes in various forms. Bruce Sterling (1994): “Today's solutions are tomorrow's problems.” Peter Senge (1990, 2006), chapter 4: “Today's problems come from yesterday’s ‘solutions’.” Albert Einstein wrote, it is often said, "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." And also: "The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking." However, it is unclear whether these quotes are really from Einstein. Calaprice (Ed., 2005) suspects that they were derived by others from what Einstein actually wrote: "A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move towards higher levels." (Einstein, 1946).
477. Lancet (2021).
478. Sharpe et al, 2016.
479. Hopkins (2008), p. 55.

Chapter 8

480. Photos, from top to bottom: Sharp (2017); Conall (2018); Hososhima (2010).
481. Quammen (2012-2020).
482. Chomel et al (2015).
483. Epstein et al (2008).
484. Temmam et al (2022).
485. IUCN (2022-2).
486. More precisely, over a deformable substrate, the asthenosphere. See, e.g.: Gupta et al (eds., 2011).
487. The story of our planet's ferocious history is captivatingly told in Chapter 1 of Frankopan (2023).
488. IPCC (2022b).
489. WWF (2022), p.4.
490. WWF (2022). Definition of 'population': Westveer et al (2022), p. 8. Europe and Central Asia: idem, p.10.
491. Leakey & Lewin (1995); Broswimmer (2002); Kolbert (2014).
492. Pimm et al (2014); Barnosky et al (2011); Ceballos et al (2015); IPBES (2019), p. 229, 238; IUCN (2022): Table 1a, update 9 December 2022; Schickhoff et al (2024).
493. IUCN (2021).
494. Westveer et al (2022).
495. Monbiot (2013).
496. Main et al (2021); Gaudreault et al (2022); O'Reilly & Stanley (2023).
497. Whitehorn, P.R. et al (2012).
498. Van der Sluijs et al (2014); Erickson (2022), referring to EPA (2022).
499. A typical example is Forbes et al (2015), paid for by CropLife America, part of CropLife International, the association of agrochemical companies, which describes itself as "promotes agricultural technologies such as pesticides and plant biotechnology" (source: CropLife Europe, 2020). About half of the authors of this publication are employees of insecticide manufacturers: Bayer (incl. Monsanto), Syngenta, Arcadis, BASF. The article calls for the development of new methods of research, a process that - together with the application of those yet to be developed - could take decades.
500. Oreskes & Conway (2010).
501. PAN Europe (2023).
502. Patterson & Mclean (2018).
503. Bourguignon (2016).
504. Peillex & Pelletier (2020); Idris et al (2023); Talyn et al (2023); Helander et al (2023).
505. IPCC (2022b).
506. CEOBS (2020).
507. Westing (1984); Young (2009); Zierler (2011); Martini (2012).
508. My et al (2021).
509. UN General Assembly (1998-2010): article 8, 2b (iv).
510. Bingle (2023).
511. Stop Ecocide International (2023).
512. Frisso (2023).
513. Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack & Sagan ("TTAPS", 1983).
514. For example, in a war between India and Pakistan: Toon et al (2019).
515. Evans (1999); Ferry & Raffinot (2019).
516. UNEP (2019); see also: UNEP (2023b).
517. CITES (no date).
518. CBD (2020); see also: IPBES (2019). The targets are updated and supplemented annually, see CBD (2024).
519. Williams (2022).
520. Abnett & Strauss (2023).
521. European Commission (2023a).
522. European Commission, Wegefelt (ed., 2008).
523. Gravesen & Funder (2022); Sileshi (2023). See also the other chapters of Dagar et al (eds., 2023).
524. WUR (2023), Brandon (2023).
525. Brondízio, Eduardo Sonnewend et al (eds., 2019).
526. Rockström et al (2009a) and Rockström et al (2009b). See also: Steffen et al (2015a) and Steffen et al (2020). Based on the work of Rockström et al, a model was introduced by Kate Raworth that became widely known, under the name Doughnut Economy. See: Raworth (2012), Raworth (2017).
527. Richardson et al (2023); Rockström et al (2023).
528. UNEP (2020); Ferrero (2022).
529. The concept of 'ecological efficiency' was introduced by Schaltegger & Sturm (1990, 1992). There are various definitions of the term; that of Schaltegger & Sturm, or variations of it (see OECD, 2008 and Desli, 2021), is the most common: ecological efficiency is the ratio between economic value added and the ecological impact created in the process.
530. There are several definitions of ecological efficiency (EE), or eco-efficiency for short, which do not agree with each other. This book uses the OECD definition (1998; 2008): "the efficiency with which ecological resources are used to meet human needs. It can be considered as a ratio of an output divided by an input: the "output" being the value of products and services produced by a firm, a sector or the economy as a whole, and the "input" being the sum of environmental pressures generated by the firm, sector or economy." See also: Kuosmanen & Kortelainen (2005). Chapter 9 provides a formula by which the EE thus defined can actually be calculated. But the European Environment Agency (EEA, 1999) and other sources use the concept of 'eco-efficiency' as its desired increase, actually not EE but ΔEE, which is noteworthy from a science-theoretical point of view. The distinction was signalled by WBCSD (2000), p. 8. Still other sources incorporate a combination of economic as well as ecological factors in the definition. To further complicate matters, in contexts where money is spent for the benefit of the environment, EE is precisely defined inversely as the ecological return divided by the financial investment, e.g. Picardo et al (2023).
531. Alexander et al (2016).
532. Alexander et al (2016).
533. Millison (2021).
534. iFarm.fi (2020); the colours have been processed to show purple light.
535. Namkung, Victoria (2022).
536. Johnson (2022), Matthews (2023).
537. Prywes et al (2023); Gionfriddo et al (2023).
538. Whang & Apaydin (2017); Wang et al (2019); Tian et al (2021).
539. De Steur (2022).
540. Lv et al (2022).
541. Ghimire et al (2023).
542. Le Page (2023).
543. Valdés & Lecaros (eds., 2023). In particular, chapters 38-40: ethics: Valdés & Lecaros (2023); human and environmental safety: Chapela & Hilbeck (2023); sustainability and ecology: Krimsky (2023).
544. Erokhin & Komendantova (2023).
545. Mason-D’Croz et al (2022); Morach et al (2022).
546. Advocate of back to nature: Palmgren et al (2015). Critical of organic farming: Kirchmann (2019).
547. UNCLOS (2023).
548. Hiddink et al (2017).
549. Manam (2023).
550. Hoekstra & Mekonnen (2011). Also: Mekonnen & Hoekstra (2010); Mekonnen & Hoekstra (2011); Hoekstra et al (2011).
551. Clarke & King (2004).
552. Yunus et al (2016). Its presence was only discovered around 2000. In the centuries before, and sadly still, hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshi suffered from arsenic poisoning, from which many died.

Chapter 9

553. WTI Crude Oil Prices per barrel. On 22 April 2020: US$11.26; on 8 May 2022: US$123.70. And on March 17, 2023: US$66.74. Source: Macrotrends (2023).
554. Milieudefensie (2022).
555. Meredith, Sam (2023).
556. California (2023); Gelles (2023).
557. Estimates for such peak moments are very difficult to make, and are therefore heavily adjusted every now and then. See chapter 11, and see: McGlade (2012); De Koning et al (2018).
558. Singh (2022).
559. Simon-Lledó et al (2023) ; Fox (2023); Diaz-Recio Lorenzo (2024).
560. DSCC (2024).
561. Scholaert (2022).
562. Miljødirektoratet (2023).
563. Fouche & Adomaitis (2023).
564. Matteucci, Luca (2022).
565. McDonough & Braungart (2002).
566. Design for Disassembly (DfD) is also referred to as Design for Recycling (DfR) or Design for Environment (DfE). See: Michael (2016); Broughton (2023).
567. Fuji Electric (2024).
568. Fujifilm (2022).
569. Philips (2007, 2013); Philips (2018).
570. Curran (ed., 2017); Hauschild et al (2018). Open source software for performing LCAs is free to download (OpenLCA, 2023).
571. Results obtained with Pré (2007); some weight factors have been updated. The aluminium model scores better because it uses a thermos jug, and the plastic model a hot plate.
572. The method with weighting factors is called Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Rosenbaum et al (2018); Hauschild et al (2018), p. 167-169; Koch, Friedl & Mihalyi (2022). A comprehensive database for the purpose of LCIA can be freely downloaded (CML, 2016).
573. Roorda (2021c).
574. Stahel (2019).
575. Geissdoerfer et al (2020).
576. Art: Clic Recycle (2023). Clothing: Johnston (2020). In marketing, recycling is often wrongly called upcycling, as a marketing ploy or to increase acceptability for consumers who have difficulty with e.g. recycled food waste. See: Weber & Dasnois (2021); Idrishi et al (2022).
577. The ranking from reduce to dump, is also known as Lansink's Ladder. See: Lansink (2017).
578. Rödger et al (2018).
579. Skantze (2005). Agriculture: Baum & Bienkowski (2020).
580. Overview: Splinter (2022). Milk: Van Duursen & Van der Leeuw (2016). Brazilian coffee: De Groot Ruiz (2013).
581. Milk: Van Duursen and De Leeuw (2016). Bananas: De Groot Ruiz et al (2018). Indian cotton: IDH and True Price (2016).
582. De Bruyn, Warringa & Odegard (2018). Beef: a weighted average of beef cows (17%), dairy cows (75%) and calves (8%). Chicken: a weighted average of laying hens (20%) and broilers (80%). Climate damage: from greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane. Environmental damage: acidification, eutrophication, particulate matter formation, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, smog formation, emissions of e.g. ammonia (NH3). Area, biodiversity: both in countries with livestock farming, and internationally through the cultivation of fodder crops for this purpose. Subsidies: both internationally, e.g. by the EU, and by national governments. Animal diseases: e.g. swine fever, BSE ('mad cow disease'), foot-and-mouth disease, avian flu, bluetongue, Q fever. For cattle, there are some external benefits: the scenic quality of pasture areas, e.g. beauty and tranquillity. The magnitude of these, which reduces the total amount by €0.20, is omitted in the figure.
583. A summary of True Price's reports and applied calculation methods, with download links, has been published by Groot Ruiz et al (2018).
584. Ellen McArthur Foundation (retrieved 2024).
585. Zeeman (2023).
586. Mazzucato (2020).
587. The global sum of all GDPs, the gross world product (GWP), was already introduced at the beginning of chapter 4.
588. Stiglitz & Walsh (2006), p. 490; Parkin (2012), p. 85; O’Sullivan, Sheffrin & Perez (2014), p. 102; Sexton (2016), p. 305; Case, Fair & Oster (2020), p. 134.
589. Production and revenue: Statista (2023a). Forest loss: Global Forest Watch (2023).
590. Oil production: Gainullin (2022). Revenue: OEC (2023). NB the known and/or extractable oil stock may not have decreased, due to any new oil discoveries, technological developments or market movements. But the actual stock has decreased exactly as much as has been taken out: anything else is physically and biochemically impossible.
591. CA$ = Canadian dollar. Production and revenue: Statista (2023b). Damage to nature and population: Leahy (2019); Kusnetz (2021).
592. UNSD (consulted 2023). The experimental, undeveloped version is called Experimental Ecosystem Accounting, SEEA-EEA. See also: Capitals Coalition (2021).
593. Turpie et al (2022).
594. De Jongh et al (2021); Van Berkel et al (2021). GDP of the Netherlands in 2018: €771 billion (Ministerie van Financiën, 2019).
595. Harper (2022); Van de Ven (2022).
596. Monbiot (2018): “Defining Earth’s resources as ‘natural capital’ is morally wrong, intellectually vacuous, and most of all counter-productive.”
597. Luck et al (2012).
598. English (Collins, 2016): Capital = “wealth available for or capable of use in the production of further wealth, as by industrial investment.” Wealth = “large amount of money and valuable material possessions.” German (Duden, 2019): Kapital = „Alle Geld- und Sachwerte, die zu einer Produktion verwendet werde, die Gewinn abwerft.“ (Capital = All financial and tangible assets used for production that generates profits).
599. Bordt (2018).
600. For example, the famous management method Six Sigma calls a list of five factors of production, the '5 M's': Machines, Materials, Man, Methods, Mother Nature. (Other M's are also mentioned in addition or instead, including Measurements, Management, Maintenance, Mission, Money.) See: Bradley (2016).
601. One method of doing so is the determination of 'willingness to pay' (Loomis & White, 1996; Richardson & Loomis, 2009), which in a survey of the US population was estimated at $12 per household per year per species, yielding a cost due to extinguishing species between $29 billion and $71 billion per year. (Hsiung & Sunstein, 2007; Johnston, 2007.)  Markandya et al (2008) estimated the health benefit to humans of the presence of the vulture population at $2.4 billion per year; see also Johnson & Hackett (2016), p. 36.
602. Roorda (2021d, 2022).
603. At least 3% a year, according to Hickel (2020). This does not refer to apparent growth due to inflation, but real growth adjusted for inflation.
604. Winter en Leenaarts (2015): “When the loan is repaid over time, the money created is withdrawn from the real economy again and the balance between money creation and money destruction is effectively zero. However, that is not all. After all, interest has to be paid on the loan, even though the money was not created for that purpose. This amount of interest has to be raised by the participants in the real economy by generating income. (...) In fact, society has to work harder and harder to accumulate money needed to pay debts and interest. This can only be done if we manage to increase income significantly. (...) Thus, as a society, we end up in a forced situation of exponential growth.”
605. Heilbroner (1953). Beunder (2015): "If savings are not invested, some of the income earned will not flow back into the economy, resulting in a recession." This can only be prevented if savings are used for expansion investments.
606. Kalshoven (2008). Other reasons for necessary growth have been mentioned, such as: increases in labour productivity and healthcare costs (Ayres, 2008; Jackson, 2009); investments related to environmental problems (Lomborg, 2001, 2004); public investment; competitiveness (Mulder & Koster, 2008); poverty reduction, but without redistribution, and therefore growth for all (Joseph Stiglitz, in an interview with Mulder and Koster, 2008, pp. 69-74).
607. Dittrich et al (2017)
608. Harrod (1965, p. 77)
609. Orrell, David (edition 2017). Economic laws are thus more like political than physical and chemical laws.
610. Kennedy (1995); Daly (1996); Mulder & Koster, 2008; Jackson (2009); D’Alisa et al (eds., 2014); Daly (2014); Hickel (2019b); Hickel (2020); Schenderling (2022); Chausson et al (2023); Fakhri et al (2023); Wolters (2023).
611. Solow (1973). See also Georgescu-Roegen (1971) and Erreygers (2009).
612. UNEP (2010), wherein the following definitions (p. 18-19): Dematerialisation = reduction of the throughput of materials in human societies. Absolute dematerialisation = decrease of the total amount of material inputs in a society. Relative dematerialisation = decrease of the amount of material input per unit of GDP or per capita. Decoupling = reducing the relationship between (1) economic variables, such as gdp or the Human Development Index (HDI), and (2) environmental variables, such as resource use or environmental indicators. Resource decoupling = reducing the relationship between economic growth and the consumption of land, material, water and energy resources. Impact decoupling = reducing the relationship between economic growth and environmental impacts such as climate change, biodiversity loss and degradation of human health. Relative decoupling = positive growth of the environmentally relevant parameter, but less than the economic parameter. Absolute decoupling = zero or negative growth rate of the environmental parameter.
613. Indicators have been developed for that purpose, including the Domestic Material Consumption (DMC), see Voet et al (2005). Dittrich et al (2017) observed, "In a global perspective, most countries showed either no decoupling or 'relative decoupling' for the period under study. Only a minority of countries, including Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK, achieved 'absolute decoupling', meaning a decline in DMC in absolute terms. However, this does not necessarily mean that these countries achieved 'green growth'. On the contrary, this performance may also or partly be due to outsourced material-intensive production and thus to a shifted environmental pressure, which is ignored by the DMC indicator." See also Hickel (2019b); Hickel (2020).
614. Hickel & Kallis (2019)
615. Lent (2017)
616. Daly (2014)
617. B Corp is something different from Benefit Corporation, a term that has a legally defined meaning in the US. The terms are related, though, as Benefit Corporations have come about thanks to B Lab efforts, and it is common for legal status to be an intermediate step towards B Corp certification.
618. B Lab (2023).
619. Ben & Jerry’s (2022).
620. Inspired by KPMG (2023), p. 7. See also: Ecolabel (2023); Standardsmap (2023).
621. The words 'responsibility' and 'accountability' are often mixed up, but they are not the same thing. Responsibility is something you take on; you carry it. It is something that happens inside you: a decision you make and then act upon. Accountability is something you give to others. Accountability is something that happens from you to the outside world, and not just in the form of one-way traffic to the outside world, but in the form of a dialogue.
622. UN Global Compact (2000). See also Dodds et al (2017), p. 146.
623. UN Global Compact (2023).
624. Gids: GRI & UNGC (2018). Examples: UNGC (2023).
625. UNGC (2018); Maersk (2019); Maersk (2023).
626. See: Williams (2014).
627. Two laws are involved: Greenwashing Directive en Green Claims Directive, in full: Directive on substantiation and communication of explicit environmental claims; and Directive Empowering Consumers for the Green Transition through Better Protection against Unfair Practices and Better Information. See: EEB (2024); Segal (2024).
628. Maslow (1954).
629. Utting & Zammit (2008); McIntosh et all (2017).
630. TASSC was later renamed The Advancement of Sound Science Center, with the same acronym.
631. Ong & Glantz (2001); RIVM (2018).
632. Tobacco Reporter (1998).
633. Chris Burrell, representative of Rothmans Tobacco in Burkina Faso, quoted by Sweeney (1998).
634. Marsh (2023).
635. Wall Street Journal (2023); Morrow (2023).
636. A UK parliamentary enquiry committee found, "Facebook falsified the privacy settings of its users in order to transfer data to certain app developers", for example Netflix and Spotify, and to "deprive other developers of that data, causing them to fail. (...) Facebook deliberately and knowingly violated both data privacy and anti-competition laws." (House of Commons, 2019).
637. Mommers (2017); Carrington & Mommers (2017). The documentary itself: Shell (1991). See also, regarding Exxon: CNN, Paddison (2023), which refers to Supran et al (2023). Summary article: Mulvey & Shulman (2015).
638. The CSDD applies to European companies with 500 or more employees and a global turnover of at least €150 million, and to companies with 250 or more employees and a global turnover of at least €40 million in certain sectors, including textiles and agriculture. In addition, the law applies to companies based outside the EU if they achieve the said turnovers within the EU. See: European Commission (2022b).
639. European Commission (2023b).

Chapter 10

640. Based on: Batchelor (1905); Free.fr (2018); Schorer (2016); Omniglot (2018); Naish (2014); UNESCO (2018).
641. Kappler (Ed., 1904), p. 439-449.
642. That amount corresponds to about $180 million in 2025.
643. Hirschfelder (2000).
644. See note on the terms Slave and Enslaved Persons at Chapter 5
645. The last country to legally abolish slavery was Mauritania, in 1981. In the US, slavery was abolished in 1865 through the 13^th Amendment, but with the exception of prisoners. Meanwhile, slavery in prisons has recently been outlawed by law, except in Louisiana; so formally, legal slavery still exists in the US.
646. Also: caste suffrage. To be precise: voting rights only accrued to men who paid sufficient taxes. The wealthiest sometimes received several votes per person.
647. UN (2023a): Goal 5.
648. Kanem, Natalia et al (2024).
649. UN (2023b).
650. Schumacher & Connaughton (2020).
651. More completely: l, lesbian; h, homosexual; b, bisexual; t, transgender; i, intersex; q, queer; a, asexual; p, pansexual; + other.
652. Maizland (2022). As an example, the Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 allows accelerated citizenship for Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi and Christian immigrants. But not for Muslims: HRW (2020).
653. European Commission (2024b).
654. Between Generation X and the Millennials, a 'micro-generation' is also named: the Xennials, who are also referred to as the 'pragmatic' generation or the 'chip generation', born between 1971 and 1985 or between 1977 and 1983.
655. Iqbal (2019).
656. Dorie & Loranger (2019).
657. Freire (2015). See also: Cámara-Leret & Bascompte (2020).
658. Simons & Lewis (2013).
659. Nettle & Romaine (2002).
660. UNGA (2019), on the proposal of the UN Economic and Social Council (2019). For information: UN DESA (2019b) and its own website of IDIL2022-2032, UNESCO (2019).
661. Acciona (no date).
662. NORC (2020).
663. Ellingham (2022), Financial Times; WEF (2020).
664. European Commission (2022c); ICI (2023).
665. ICI (2022).
666. Concern Worldwide (2023a). See also: Concern Worldwide (2023b).
667. McIntosh, Jonathan (2004).
668. World Bank (2017), chapter 2; Chzhen et al (2017).
669. Alkire & Foster (2011).
670. Alkire et al (2016).
671. Health, education and standard of living each determine 1/3 of the MPI score. Since the first two of these consist of 2 themes each - nutrition and child mortality, and school years and school attendance, respectively - each weighs 1/6, as shown in the figure. The standard of living is made up of 6 components, so each weighs 1/18. The exact calculation of the MPI can be found in UNDP & OPHI (2022b).
672. UNDP & OPHI (2023), where the corresponding data can also be downloaded.
673. UNDP & OPHI (2022a).
674. UNDP (2022).
675. UNDP (2022): Table 1, p. 272. Some countries, including Somalia and North Korea, have no score due to lack of information.
676. ILO, Walk Free & IOM (2022).
677. Forced labour is defined as "any work or service required of a person under threat of punishment and for which that person has not volunteered". ILO, Walk Free & IOM (2022), p. 2, referring to the Forced Labour Convention (ILO, 1930). On p. 119 of ILO, Walk Free & IOM (2022), endnote 4 provides a definition of forced child labour.
678. Urbina (2023).
679. US DOL (2020).
680. HRW (2022).
681. Pattisson et al (2021).
682. Diego-Rosell & Joudo Larsen (2018): Appendix D, p. 27-30.
683. This and many other personal stories of forced labour can be found on ILO (no date) via the search term ‘forced labour’.
684. World Bank (2018).
685. Sources: e.g. Masters Expo (2023); Superyacht Times (2023).
686. To be precise, in the year 3,856,192, he has accumulated the amount, at least if he invests the money, and the profit on it exactly compensates for inflation.
687. Bloomberg (2023).
688. World Inequality Report 2022: Chancel, Lucas, Piketty, Thomas et al (2022).
689. This and the following data: Oxfam (2023a).
690. P99/P50 is also referred to as T1/B50, with the 'T' of 'top' and the 'B' of 'bottom'.
691. Data refer to the year 2020, except for South Africa, for which the most recent data are mentioned, from 2014. Source: World Bank (2023a).
692. Piketty (2013).
693. The book Hickel (2018) makes a penetrating and convincing case for this.
694. Kuznets (1955). Kuznets himself admitted: 'The publication is [based on] maybe 5 per cent empirical information and 95 per cent speculation.' His followers generally ignored that comment.
695. Woltring, 2012.
696. Hertz (2001); Stuckler et al (2009); Milanovic (2011).
697. Deininger & Squire (1998)
698. Strauss (2019).
699. Parry, Field & Supiano (2014).
700. McNeil (2008); Beckett (2010).
701. McGoey (2015).
702. Schwab (2020).
703. Forbes (2023a, 2023b, 2023c).
704. The word philanthrocapitalism was created by Bishop & Green (2008). See further: McGoey (2015); Webber, Leitner & Sheppard (2021).
705. Oxfam (2023a).
706. Hickel (2018); Goodman (2022).
707. 8,2%: White House (2021). 3,4%: Eisinger, Ernsthausen & Kiel (2021); 13%: York (2021), alle drie geciteerd in Oxfam America (2022). In the Netherlands too, the richest have been paying far less tax than the rest for years, while their incomes rose the fastest, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) proved in 2024: CPB (2024).
708. ITEP (2021).
709. Oxfam (2020).
710. UNU (2022).
711. This and the following data: Oxfam (2023a).
712. UBS (2023).
713. Maitland et al (2022); Oxfam (2023b) : Box I.1.
714. Neate, Rupert (2023), Neate, Rupert (2024); Patriotic Millionaires (2024).
715. Meyer & Roser (2009) use the concept of "sufficientarianism". See also Frankfurt (1987), who writes about the "Doctrine of Sufficiency" and discusses its relations with egalitarianism.
716. Robeyns (2023).
717. Timmer (2021).
718. Example of a supporter of such conspiracy theories: Watson (2003). Critical examination: Cosentino (2020); Hanley, Kumar & Durumeric (2023).
719. Woltring, 2012. See also: Stiglitz (2013).
720. OECD (2015).
721. The World Bank's widely accepted definition describes civil society organisations as: “the wide array of nongovernmental and not-for-profit organizations which have a presence in public life, expressing the interests and values of their members or others, based on ethical, cultural, scientific, religious or philanthropic considerations. This definition of civil society (...) refers to the sphere outside the family, the state and the market. It excludes for-profit businesses, although professional associations or business federations may be included.” World Bank (2005): chapter 2, n0. 6, p.3.
722. Carayannis & Campbell (2012); Peris-Ortiz et al (2016); De Oliveira Monteiro & Carayannis (Eds., 2017); Galvao et al (2019).
723. The fourth member of the quadruple helix is usually referred to as 'universities'. This book extends this to 'education and research' in general. The quintuple helix has been presented elsewhere in a way where nature is located as one of the five within the helix, see, for example, Carayannis, Barth & Campbell (2012). In figure 10.1, the natural environment is not part of the helix, but rather the helix is part of nature, so that the helix itself is represented graphically as a quadruple helix of human society.
724. Public-Private Partnership is already the third concept to be abbreviated to PPP. Previously mentioned in the book were: People, Planet, Profit and Purchasing Power Parity, both of which are abbreviated to PPP as well.
725. ‘Trans’ = beyond, through. So 'transdisciplinary' means: beyond disciplines. Definitions of these concepts often vary, which can cause confusion. This book uses a coherent set of three definitions: Multidisciplinary: approach where a project or problem is highlighted from multiple disciplines, allowing different types of perspectives and methods to have a chance. Experts are not in close contact with each other, so solutions based on combinations of disciplines are not likely to be created. One person can, without the help of others, do multidisciplinary work. Interdisciplinary: method of team collaboration in which experts from a variety of disciplines work intensively together on a project or problem, enabling rich, creative and innovative strategies and methods to be devised and implemented. Transdisciplinary: method of working together in an interdisciplinary team, which also includes individuals who participate not because of a particular discipline but because of their practical experience or some other form of involvement, e.g. as a representative of a civil society organisation or of nature. See: Roorda (2015, 2016), a further elaboration of Roorda (2010), partly based on RMNO (2000) and Pohl & Hirsch Hadorn (2007).
726. McIntosh et al (2017); Sondermann & Ulbert (2021).

Chapter 11

727. Steffen et al (2015b); Dixson-Declève et al (2022), p. 14-15. Population: Kremer (1993); UN DESA (2022a). Gross world product: Bradford DeLong (1998); IMF (2022). Temperature rise: NOAA (2019); Met Office Hadley centre (2023). Plastic production: Geyer et al (2017).
728. Mazák et al (2011).
729. Goodall (2010); Mitani (2010).
730. Merritt (2010).
731. Plato (ca. 380 BC); Aristotle (ca. 350 BC-a); Hobbes (1642); Hume (1739); Marx (1862).
732. Locke (1689).
733. Hershkovitz et al (2018).
734. Pigati et al (2023) ; Praetorius et al (2023).
735. Pauketat (ed., 2012); Raff (2021).
736. Hunt & Lipo (2006).
737. McWirter (ed., 1986).
738. See: Rousseau (1762b), book I, chapter III.
739. Martin (1966) opened the scientific discussion and identified humans as the cause of the extinction wave. Harari (2011-2014), Andermann et al (2020), O'Keefe et al (2023), Svenning et al (2024) and many others endorse this view. In the Americas, which were populated much later than the Old World, this is relatively easy to verify. As the ancestors of the Indians first crossed North America, the North American horse died out, as did the giant armadillo, mastodon, mammoth, cheetah, lion, giant sloth, camel and numerous other large animal species. It was not just about mammals, as the giant condor also became extinct, as did the sabre-toothed salmon and many other species. (These are respectively: equus scotti, glyptodon, mammut, mammuthus, miracinonyx, panthera leo atrox, megalonyx and camelops. The condor was aiolornis incredibilis, the salmon was named post mortem oncorhynchus rastrosus.) When South America also received human habitation, the South American horse died out there, as did the largest llama, an ungulate, an elephant-like animal, a bear and the sabre-toothed tiger. (Successively: hippidion, macrauchenia, toxodon, stegomastodon, arctotherium and smilodon.) Not everyone agrees with the conclusion on the role of humans; the discussion is conducted in a fierce tone. See, for example, Stewart (2021), who 'exonerates' humans. Others argue for more research: Meltzer (2020), Kopels & Ullah (2024).
740. Diamond (2005); Harari (2011-2014); Graeber & Wengrow (2021).
741. Allen (2009); Landes (2003).
742. McNeill & Engelke (2014), Steffen et al (2015b).
743. Crutzen & Stoermer (2000), Crutzen (2002). The proposal to establish the concept of 'Anthropocene' as an official geological epoch was formally rejected by a majority of the International Union of Geological Sciences in March 2024. Nevertheless, the concept will undoubtedly continue to be used in practice. See: IUGS (2024).
744. Steffen et al (2015b); Steffen (2021).
745. Troost et al (2012).
746. Groeskamp & Kjellsson (2020).
747. This consideration is based on the theory of linguistic relativity. For a thorough overview, see: Leavitt (2011).
748. This is no fantasy. Mathematical historian Georges Ifrah gives fascinating examples of this (Ifrah, 1981). For instance, members of the Aranda tribe in Australia knew only the numbers one, two, two-and-one, two-and-two, many. Similarly, the Indians of Fire Island, the Abipones in Paraguay, the Bosmans and Pygmies in Africa and the Botocoudos in Brazil did not count beyond four.
749. Figures 11.3 to 11.5 and accompanying texts are based on Roorda (2021d) and Roorda (2022), chapter 3.
750. Logos = word, mythos = narrative, politike = policy, feno (phainein) = appearance, as in phenomenon and phenotype. One can compare the naming with the atmosphere, which also consists of multiple layers, including the troposphere and stratosphere. The four-sphere model is taken from Roorda (2021d) and Roorda (2022), where the model is applied more extensively.
751. Memes are concepts passed down from generation to generation in a culture; memes are considered the mental counterpart of biological genes, source of physical heredity. The concept was coined by evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins (1976). Archetypes are inherited ideas and images that underpin our thinking: the concept was introduced in that sense by psychologist Carl Gustav Jung (1934).
752. Trainer (2007), p. 136.
753. Snyder (1974), p. 101.
754. Mandal (2007).
755. This, of course, does not indicate that these three would be the most important, and it makes no statement about their social value or significance.
756. Hopster (2019).
757. Darwin (1859).
758. The ‘March of Progress’ is a notorious teleological pitfall: see (Werth, 2022) and Schramm & Schmiemann (2019).
759. The word 'science' is interpreted in many ways. In this book, the word has the meaning of the conception of science as it emerged around the time of Isaac Newton, i.e. in the seventeenth century, with a antecedent from the Copernican Revolution, i.e. in the sixteenth century. See: Roorda (2021d) and Roorda (2022).
760. Copernicus (1543, posthumous).
761. A continuously updated list can be found at Schneider (retrieved 2024). As of 25 January 2024, there were 5598 exoplanets known near 4131 stars.
762. As the monk James Ussher (1650) calculated.
763. Planck Collaboration (2020).
764. Connelly et al (2012).
765. Bell et al (2015); Schopf et al (2017).
766. Hublin et al (2017).
767. The exact percentage depends on the definition and method of counting: see Suntsova & Buzdin (2020).
768. Madigan, Michael T. et al (2022).
769. De Waal (2020).
770. Brent et al (2014).
771. De Waal (2013).
772. Peña-Guzmán (2022).
773. Dufourcq (2023).
774. Aitchison (2000). This concerns not only language learned by animals from humans, but also natural animal behaviour.
775. De Waal (2001).
776. Endler (2012). This does not concern 'paintings' elicited from animals by humans but natural animal behaviour.
777. Godfrey-Smith (2018); Godfrey-Smith (2021).
778. Douglas-Hamilton et al (2006). On several occasions, it has been observed that elephants bury their deceased children, see: Kaswan & Roy (2024).
779. The word theory is used here in the scientific sense. The US National Academy of Sciences uses the following four definitions (NAS, 1999):  “Fact: In science, an observation that has been repeatedly confirmed and for all practical purposes is accepted as ‘true’. Truth in science, however, is never final, and what is accepted as a fact today may be modified or even discarded tomorrow. Hypothesis: A tentative statement about the natural world leading to deductions that can be tested. If the deductions are verified, it becomes more probable that the hypothesis is correct. If the deductions are incorrect, the original hypothesis can be abandoned or modified. Hypotheses can be used to build more complex inferences and explanations. Law: A descriptive generalization about how some aspect of the natural world behaves under stated circumstances. Theory: In science, a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world that can incorporate facts, laws, inferences, and tested hypotheses.”
780. In the modern science-philosophical view, it is actually not about checking, i.e. verifying, but rather about falsifiability; but that goes a bit too far for the purpose of this book. See: Popper (1934), Popper (1959), Popper (1989).
781. Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC), UN (1989).
782. Based on: UDHR, UN (1948); ECHR, Council of Europe (1950); ICCPR, UN (1966a); ICESCR, UN (1966b); and the children's rights convention UNCRC, UN (1989).
783. Schmidt (2018).
784. Indeed: octopuses also turn out to be not only intelligent but also social animals, see: Gutnick & Kuba (2018).
785. Naess, A. (2005); Drengson & Devall (eds., 2008).
786. Cavalieri & Singer (eds., 1993).
787. Meijer (2019).
788. Burgers & Den Outer (2021); Den Outer (2023).
789. Kraak (2023).
790. Chandran (2019).
791. Eco Jurisprudence Monitor (2008).
792. Greene (2011).
793. Schultz & O’Flynn (2022).
794. Sorokin (1941); Brown (2009/2023).
795. Si'ahl is better known as Seathle or Seattle, after whom the eponymous city was named. The Indian leader's speech was not written down until years later (Smith, 1887), and it can safely be assumed that the rendering is far from literal: see Clark (1985); Kaiser (1987); Nooij (2007). The famous speech has since been rewritten several times (Zussy, 1993), including for a feature film (Perry, director, 1972), which is the source for the quotation shown.
796. In England, this was once called Coverture: see Blackstone (1765).
797. See the note on the concepts Slave and Enslaved person to Chapter 5.
798. Henckens (2021).
799. Dewulf et al (2016); Tilton et al (2018).
800. De Koning et al (2018).
801. Born & Ciftci (2024).
802. Henckens (2016); Henckens et al (2016).
803. See: Benton (2023). Theoretically, life could be destroyed by the nuclear winter already mentioned, see chapter 8, or as a result of out-of-control nanotechnology: the 'grey goo' hypothesis, see Drexler (1986); see also Letwin (2020).
804. Wallace-Wells (2019).
805. Machiavelli (1521).
806. Machiavelli (1532).
807. Von Clausewitz (1832), Volume I, chapter 2.
808. Bazyler (2016).
809. Spinoza (1677), chapter 5 nr. 4: “Peace is not mere absence of war but a virtue arising from strength of mind.” Mistakenly, the quote is often attributed to Spinoza (1670), usually replacing the second half of the quote with words that Spinoza did not write.
810. Krishnamurti (1954): “Peace is a state of mind.”
811. Zeller (2023).
812. ZUM (2009); Bibliotheca.org (2009).
813. Van de Weijer (2018).
814. Lancet (2021).
815. Gordin (2017); Zoglauer (2023).
816. Bradd (2023).
817. Fukuyama (1992).
818. Balkenende & Buijs (2023).
819. Mason (2016); Herrmann (2022); Saitō (2023-2024). See also: Klein (2015).
820. Earth Charter Initiative (2000).

Chapter 12

821. SDG Target 14.c contains the only mention towards the future, by citing a UN General Assembly report (UNGA, 2012) entitled "The future we want". Those hoping to find inspired visions of the future in it will be disappointed, as the report offers none, although the term "future generations" is mentioned nine times. The report consists of a long series of concerns, acknowledgements and recommendations for action.
822. Sterling uses the concept bolted on here: Sterling (2004), Sterling (2013).
823. It is a common misconception that goals are formulated by describing the route towards them. A goal is not a process but a state. Even a so-called process goal pursues a state to be achieved (referred to in physics as a state of motion), in that case a state to be periodically reached or improved or permanently maintained over a certain period of time, usually intended as a means or intermediate goal or milestone for a final state to be achieved, which in that context is called a result goal: a concept that is therefore a pleonasm.
824. Roorda (2021d) and Roorda (2022) argue in that context for the establishment of an entirely new science, Omniconomics.
825. Figure 12.2 is taken from Roorda (2021d) and Roorda (2022), chapter 4.
826. OECD (2000). See also: Tindemans & Dekocker (2020).
827. Senge, Peter (1990, 2006). See also Argyris & Schön (1978), who speak of double-loop learning, in which "error is detected and corrected in ways that involve the modification of an organization’s underlying norms, policies and objectives."
828. Morin & Kern (1999).
829. WEF (2023). See also: Rotmans & Verheijden (2021 and 2023); Lawrence et al (2022) and Homer-Dixon (2023).
830. Bradd (2023).
831. Own definition. See also: Argyris & Schön (1978) and other literature on action theory.
832. Morel Schramm et al (2022).
833. Norris et al (2021). With a focus on climate change, it is referred to as the carbon handprint (CO₂ handprint), see Grönman et al (2019). A version of the ecological handprint has been made calculable along the lines of LCA and LCC: see Lakanen et al (2022).
834. Pajula et al (2021), chapter 2.
835. Husgafvel (2021).
836. Guillaume et al (2020).
837. Biemer, Dixon & Blackburn (2013), table 1.
838. Bauer et al (2012).
839. Alexander (2013).
840. Books & articles on RESFIA+D: Roorda (2015; 2016); Roorda & Rachelson (2018; 2019).
841. The Duffy null phenotype, Fy(a-b-), is very rare in whites but occurs in 68% of blacks, according to Reid & Lomas-Francis (2004), p. 280.
842. A rubric is a tool widely used in contemporary university and vocational education to assess and provide feedback on performance and skills, in the form of a list of criteria, provided with a scale of points or level descriptions from low to high, indicating how well each criterion is met. See: Reddy & Andrade (2010); Stevens & Levi (2012); VU (2023).
843. Backgrounds and further details of RESFIA+D are available in Roorda (2016) and Roorda & Rachelson (2019).
844. Roorda (2015, in Dutch); Roorda & Rachelson (2018, in English).
845. For example (see the bibliography): International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education (IJSHE, 2000-present); Journal of Education for Sustainable Development (JESD, 2007-present).
846. Some of these criteria are particularly applicable to action research (Rapoport, 1970; Halsey, 1972; Brydon-Miller, Greenwood & Maguire, 2003), case studies (Patton, 2014; Yin, 2017), and transdisciplinary research (Roorda, 2001; Pohl & Hirsch Hadorn, 2007; Scholz et al, 2006). For an overview, see Roorda (2010), §1.4.
847. Renes (2021). The difference between intentions and behaviour is also called the value-action gap, also known as the knowledge-attitudes-practice gap (KAP gap). See: Blake (1999); Landry et al (2018).
848. Gifford (2011); website: Gifford (2024).
849. Clayton (2020).
850. Cannon (1915); Walker (2013); Crosby (2015).
851. Krznaric (2021).
852. Heinberg & Miller (2023).
853. Rupprecht & Wamsler (2023).
854. Rotmans & Verheijden (2021), Rotmans & Verheijden (2023).
855. McCord (2012): Afterword.
856. Hoyle (1964).
857. In developing this Pledge, sources of inspiration included Pugwash (1988); INES (1995); KNMG (2010).