This may concern unpleasant developments in the outside world. One of those nightmares might involve a world in which the environment is so badly devastated that the entire human population is suffering from famine. A dream, meanwhile, could involve a world where wars are no longer fought because nobody has a reason to fight.
The Forum that discusses such possible future development will no doubt also discuss dreams and nightmares related to the future of the own organization: varying from perhaps true nightmares such as bankrupcy or even criminal charges, to brilliant futures involving perhaps huge profits, organizational growth or considerable contributions to society and sustainable development.
A pleasant fantasy world is called a utopia, with the name derived from an eponymous book written in 1516 by Thomas More, in which he dreamed of an ideal world. The opposite of a utopia is a dystopia, which is a world in which everything goes wrong, a scenario of doom. In considering these futures, one can be as creative and playful as possible.
Step 1: Determining the perspectives on the future
The first step is to design perspectives on the future. One must not keep to a single possible future, as it will certainly not work out exactly anyway. It is best if an entire series of these possible futures is created, both utopias and dystopias. The participants in the process make full use of their fantasies, their dreams and their nightmares. They use their knowledge and understanding of the weaknesses and strengths of the present, as well as tools such as models and future scenarios. They also take robust trends into account, creating a picture of the futures (mostly dystopias) that can probably be expected if current policies remain unchanged.
The most interesting creative process comes into being when people with different values systems join in the process, so that we can see whether they are able to find common dreams. Visionary people – people with a strong power of imagination – are required to avoid the entire exercise becoming stuck in the world of today. It is a good idea to select an interdisciplinary team, and the participants do not all have to be experts. ‘Ordinary’ people can also participate in order to have a broad social basis, which creates a transdisciplinary approach. One way to do this could consist of a good spread across younger and older people. The result of the process will be a range of possible futures (see the figure on the right).
A number of desirable futures (utopias) are worked out in concrete terms, taking on the form of goals to be achieved. A distant point is chosen for this. Depending in the context, this may be 10, 20 or even 50 years from the present.
Next the participants examine what must be done before that period has expired in order to make the goals feasible. For example, they step back 5 or 10 years from the end time and come up with interim goals that must be achieved by that stage to make the final goals feasible. It is this step that involves the actual ‘backcasting’.
If necessary, this step is repeated several times, and each time a further step is taken back in time, towards the present. In the end, there is a step-by-step strategy that - theoretically - will make it possible to make the dream for the future come true within the allotted period. The final step of this stage results in short-term goals, which are feasible through actions that can be commenced now.
